Current ensemble forecasts from sources including MetService, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Wellington's August 23 maximum likely ranging 13–16°C, driven by northwesterly flow advecting milder subtropical air ahead of a frontal passage, with strong winds (gusts to 50+ km/h) mixing the boundary layer and limiting diurnal range. Cloud cover and timing of any showers introduce key uncertainty, as reduced insolation or evaporative cooling could cap the peak near 13–14°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming to 15–16°C. This narrow spread and model divergence on exact advection strength explain the evenly matched market-implied probabilities, typical for late-winter conditions where historical August highs average near 13°C but vary ±2–3°C with synoptic shifts. Updated runs and observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
15°C 51%
14°C 23%
16°C 19%
13°C 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
13%
14°C
23%
15°C
51%
16°C
19%
17°C
4%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 51%
14°C 23%
16°C 19%
13°C 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
$95 KL.
1%
10°C
$95 KL.
1%
11°C
$95 KL.
1%
12°C
$95 KL.
1%
13°C
$0 KL.
13%
14°C
$0 KL.
23%
15°C
$4 KL.
51%
16°C
$24 KL.
19%
17°C
$0 KL.
4%
18°C
$20 KL.
3%
19°C or higher
$95 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from sources including MetService, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Wellington's August 23 maximum likely ranging 13–16°C, driven by northwesterly flow advecting milder subtropical air ahead of a frontal passage, with strong winds (gusts to 50+ km/h) mixing the boundary layer and limiting diurnal range. Cloud cover and timing of any showers introduce key uncertainty, as reduced insolation or evaporative cooling could cap the peak near 13–14°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming to 15–16°C. This narrow spread and model divergence on exact advection strength explain the evenly matched market-implied probabilities, typical for late-winter conditions where historical August highs average near 13°C but vary ±2–3°C with synoptic shifts. Updated runs and observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$522Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from sources including MetService, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Wellington's August 23 maximum likely ranging 13–16°C, driven by northwesterly flow advecting milder subtropical air ahead of a frontal passage, with strong winds (gusts to 50+ km/h) mixing the boundary layer and limiting diurnal range. Cloud cover and timing of any showers introduce key uncertainty, as reduced insolation or evaporative cooling could cap the peak near 13–14°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming to 15–16°C. This narrow spread and model divergence on exact advection strength explain the evenly matched market-implied probabilities, typical for late-winter conditions where historical August highs average near 13°C but vary ±2–3°C with synoptic shifts. Updated runs and observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$522Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from sources including MetService, ECMWF, and GFS indicate Wellington's August 23 maximum likely ranging 13–16°C, driven by northwesterly flow advecting milder subtropical air ahead of a frontal passage, with strong winds (gusts to 50+ km/h) mixing the boundary layer and limiting diurnal range. Cloud cover and timing of any showers introduce key uncertainty, as reduced insolation or evaporative cooling could cap the peak near 13–14°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming to 15–16°C. This narrow spread and model divergence on exact advection strength explain the evenly matched market-implied probabilities, typical for late-winter conditions where historical August highs average near 13°C but vary ±2–3°C with synoptic shifts. Updated runs and observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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