**Current forecast guidance from sources including MetService-aligned models and international agencies points to overnight lows around 11–12°C on September 4, driven by a northwest flow advecting milder maritime air and expected cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling.** Historical September averages for Wellington place typical lows near 9–10°C, but the prevailing northerly winds and spring transition conditions are supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 12°C (57%) and 13°C (43.5%). Traders appear to weigh model consensus on limited clear-sky cooling against the possibility of brief clearer periods or wind shifts that could dip readings lower, consistent with the clustered probabilities near 40% for several cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the coming hours will likely refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
7°C or below 81%
9°C 80%
10°C 80%
8°C 79%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
81%
8°C
79%
9°C
80%
10°C
80%
11°C
79%
12°C
57%
13°C
43%
14°C
79%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
<1%
7°C or below 81%
9°C 80%
10°C 80%
8°C 79%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 KL.
81%
8°C
$0 KL.
79%
9°C
$0 KL.
80%
10°C
$0 KL.
80%
11°C
$0 KL.
79%
12°C
$0 KL.
57%
13°C
$0 KL.
43%
14°C
$0 KL.
79%
15°C
$0 KL.
3%
16°C
$0 KL.
2%
17°C or higher
$246 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast guidance from sources including MetService-aligned models and international agencies points to overnight lows around 11–12°C on September 4, driven by a northwest flow advecting milder maritime air and expected cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling.**
Historical September averages for Wellington place typical lows near 9–10°C, but the prevailing northerly winds and spring transition conditions are supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 12°C (57%) and 13°C (43.5%). Traders appear to weigh model consensus on limited clear-sky cooling against the possibility of brief clearer periods or wind shifts that could dip readings lower, consistent with the clustered probabilities near 40% for several cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the coming hours will likely refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$246Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast guidance from sources including MetService-aligned models and international agencies points to overnight lows around 11–12°C on September 4, driven by a northwest flow advecting milder maritime air and expected cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling.**
Historical September averages for Wellington place typical lows near 9–10°C, but the prevailing northerly winds and spring transition conditions are supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 12°C (57%) and 13°C (43.5%). Traders appear to weigh model consensus on limited clear-sky cooling against the possibility of brief clearer periods or wind shifts that could dip readings lower, consistent with the clustered probabilities near 40% for several cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the coming hours will likely refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$246Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast guidance from sources including MetService-aligned models and international agencies points to overnight lows around 11–12°C on September 4, driven by a northwest flow advecting milder maritime air and expected cloud cover or showers that limit radiative cooling.** Historical September averages for Wellington place typical lows near 9–10°C, but the prevailing northerly winds and spring transition conditions are supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 12°C (57%) and 13°C (43.5%). Traders appear to weigh model consensus on limited clear-sky cooling against the possibility of brief clearer periods or wind shifts that could dip readings lower, consistent with the clustered probabilities near 40% for several cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings in the coming hours will likely refine these near-term odds ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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