Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an 83% implied probability in the NY-04 race after flipping the Long Island suburban seat from Republican control in 2024 with a narrow margin. She advanced through the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary without opposition, while Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination. The district's recent voting patterns and Gillen's first-term focus on local issues have contributed to the current trader consensus favoring the Democrat ahead of the November 3 general election, though the seat remains competitive given its history as a swing district. No major developments in the past month have shifted positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
15%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$791 KL.
83%
Republican Party
$343 KL.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an 83% implied probability in the NY-04 race after flipping the Long Island suburban seat from Republican control in 2024 with a narrow margin. She advanced through the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary without opposition, while Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination. The district's recent voting patterns and Gillen's first-term focus on local issues have contributed to the current trader consensus favoring the Democrat ahead of the November 3 general election, though the seat remains competitive given its history as a swing district. No major developments in the past month have shifted positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,134Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an 83% implied probability in the NY-04 race after flipping the Long Island suburban seat from Republican control in 2024 with a narrow margin. She advanced through the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary without opposition, while Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination. The district's recent voting patterns and Gillen's first-term focus on local issues have contributed to the current trader consensus favoring the Democrat ahead of the November 3 general election, though the seat remains competitive given its history as a swing district. No major developments in the past month have shifted positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$1,134Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an 83% implied probability in the NY-04 race after flipping the Long Island suburban seat from Republican control in 2024 with a narrow margin. She advanced through the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary without opposition, while Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination. The district's recent voting patterns and Gillen's first-term focus on local issues have contributed to the current trader consensus favoring the Democrat ahead of the November 3 general election, though the seat remains competitive given its history as a swing district. No major developments in the past month have shifted positioning.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp