Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination in Texas' 4th Congressional District's March 3 primary, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election, where trader consensus prices Republicans at 85.5% implied probability. The district's strong Republican lean—Cook PVI R+12 following 2025 redistricting that preserved its safely GOP status from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border—combined with Fallon's decisive 2024 reelection victory underpin this positioning. Absent district-specific polling or fundraising disparities shifting sentiment, markets reflect historical dominance in this non-competitive race, with no major developments since primaries altering the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan voter base.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
15%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,656 KL.
86%
Democratic Party
$1,842 KL.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination in Texas' 4th Congressional District's March 3 primary, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election, where trader consensus prices Republicans at 85.5% implied probability. The district's strong Republican lean—Cook PVI R+12 following 2025 redistricting that preserved its safely GOP status from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border—combined with Fallon's decisive 2024 reelection victory underpin this positioning. Absent district-specific polling or fundraising disparities shifting sentiment, markets reflect historical dominance in this non-competitive race, with no major developments since primaries altering the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan voter base.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$3,498Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination in Texas' 4th Congressional District's March 3 primary, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election, where trader consensus prices Republicans at 85.5% implied probability. The district's strong Republican lean—Cook PVI R+12 following 2025 redistricting that preserved its safely GOP status from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border—combined with Fallon's decisive 2024 reelection victory underpin this positioning. Absent district-specific polling or fundraising disparities shifting sentiment, markets reflect historical dominance in this non-competitive race, with no major developments since primaries altering the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan voter base.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$3,498Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination in Texas' 4th Congressional District's March 3 primary, facing Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November 3 general election, where trader consensus prices Republicans at 85.5% implied probability. The district's strong Republican lean—Cook PVI R+12 following 2025 redistricting that preserved its safely GOP status from Dallas suburbs to the Arkansas border—combined with Fallon's decisive 2024 reelection victory underpin this positioning. Absent district-specific polling or fundraising disparities shifting sentiment, markets reflect historical dominance in this non-competitive race, with no major developments since primaries altering the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan voter base.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp