Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,922Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,922Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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