The UAE’s May 2026 departure remains the year’s sole confirmed exit, driven by long-standing quota disputes and capacity-expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June, including threats to leave unless quotas rose, were walked back by Baghdad officials who affirmed continued membership while seeking higher limits. Venezuela has seen internal discussion and external speculation about a possible exit, yet low current output and U.S. influence have kept any move from advancing. September OPEC+ meetings maintained production discipline among remaining members, reinforcing trader expectations that no additional country will complete a withdrawal before year-end despite quota tensions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
37% khả năng
$177,334 KL.
$177,334 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
37% khả năng
$177,334 KL.
$177,334 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 departure remains the year’s sole confirmed exit, driven by long-standing quota disputes and capacity-expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June, including threats to leave unless quotas rose, were walked back by Baghdad officials who affirmed continued membership while seeking higher limits. Venezuela has seen internal discussion and external speculation about a possible exit, yet low current output and U.S. influence have kept any move from advancing. September OPEC+ meetings maintained production discipline among remaining members, reinforcing trader expectations that no additional country will complete a withdrawal before year-end despite quota tensions.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$177,334Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 departure remains the year’s sole confirmed exit, driven by long-standing quota disputes and capacity-expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June, including threats to leave unless quotas rose, were walked back by Baghdad officials who affirmed continued membership while seeking higher limits. Venezuela has seen internal discussion and external speculation about a possible exit, yet low current output and U.S. influence have kept any move from advancing. September OPEC+ meetings maintained production discipline among remaining members, reinforcing trader expectations that no additional country will complete a withdrawal before year-end despite quota tensions.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$177,334Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s May 2026 departure remains the year’s sole confirmed exit, driven by long-standing quota disputes and capacity-expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Subsequent signals from Iraq in June, including threats to leave unless quotas rose, were walked back by Baghdad officials who affirmed continued membership while seeking higher limits. Venezuela has seen internal discussion and external speculation about a possible exit, yet low current output and U.S. influence have kept any move from advancing. September OPEC+ meetings maintained production discipline among remaining members, reinforcing trader expectations that no additional country will complete a withdrawal before year-end despite quota tensions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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