Trader consensus heavily favors the European Union enduring beyond 2026 at 96.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and formidable treaty barriers to wholesale dissolution, which would require unanimous agreement among 27 nations to amend core treaties or coordinated exits—an unprecedented feat absent acute crises. Recent EU actions underscore cohesion: leaders set June 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market amid global turmoil, advanced enlargement talks with Montenegro, and coordinated responses to energy price surges from Middle East tensions in March 2026. While fiscal pressures, immigration strains, and defense spending debates persist, no credible momentum for breakup has emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from cascading sovereign debt defaults or a major geopolitical shock triggering multiple withdrawals, though such scenarios remain low-probability black swans.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtEU dissolves before 2027?
EU dissolves before 2027?
$161,975 KL.
$161,975 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$161,975 KL.
$161,975 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors the European Union enduring beyond 2026 at 96.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and formidable treaty barriers to wholesale dissolution, which would require unanimous agreement among 27 nations to amend core treaties or coordinated exits—an unprecedented feat absent acute crises. Recent EU actions underscore cohesion: leaders set June 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market amid global turmoil, advanced enlargement talks with Montenegro, and coordinated responses to energy price surges from Middle East tensions in March 2026. While fiscal pressures, immigration strains, and defense spending debates persist, no credible momentum for breakup has emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from cascading sovereign debt defaults or a major geopolitical shock triggering multiple withdrawals, though such scenarios remain low-probability black swans.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$161,975Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors the European Union enduring beyond 2026 at 96.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and formidable treaty barriers to wholesale dissolution, which would require unanimous agreement among 27 nations to amend core treaties or coordinated exits—an unprecedented feat absent acute crises. Recent EU actions underscore cohesion: leaders set June 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market amid global turmoil, advanced enlargement talks with Montenegro, and coordinated responses to energy price surges from Middle East tensions in March 2026. While fiscal pressures, immigration strains, and defense spending debates persist, no credible momentum for breakup has emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from cascading sovereign debt defaults or a major geopolitical shock triggering multiple withdrawals, though such scenarios remain low-probability black swans.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$161,975Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors the European Union enduring beyond 2026 at 96.2% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and formidable treaty barriers to wholesale dissolution, which would require unanimous agreement among 27 nations to amend core treaties or coordinated exits—an unprecedented feat absent acute crises. Recent EU actions underscore cohesion: leaders set June 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market amid global turmoil, advanced enlargement talks with Montenegro, and coordinated responses to energy price surges from Middle East tensions in March 2026. While fiscal pressures, immigration strains, and defense spending debates persist, no credible momentum for breakup has emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from cascading sovereign debt defaults or a major geopolitical shock triggering multiple withdrawals, though such scenarios remain low-probability black swans.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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