Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$28,045 KL.
$28,045 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$28,045 KL.
$28,045 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,837 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$19,208 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28,045Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$28,045Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th congressional district, encompassing Milwaukee and surrounding suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean with a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+25. Incumbent Gwen Moore has held the seat since 2005 and won reelection with roughly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest. Republican candidates have filed for the primary but lack the fundraising or name recognition needed to mount a credible general-election challenge in this urban district. The resulting trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including historical vote margins and low turnover rates in similarly safe seats. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in turnout or a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee between now and November 3, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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