Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$33,516 KL.
$33,516 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$33,516 KL.
$33,516 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,352 KL.
98%
Republican Party
$21,164 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$33,516Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$33,516Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gwen Moore’s long incumbency and the Wisconsin 4th district’s entrenched Democratic lean—centered on Milwaukee County and reflected in a partisan voting index exceeding D+25—underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. The seat has remained solidly Democratic for decades, with Moore securing 74.8 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid D. Limited Republican primary activity between Purnima Nath and Tim Rogers, alongside an independent challenger, has produced no meaningful shift in positioning ahead of the August 11 primaries. A Democratic general-election nominee is expected to face minimal opposition in November. Only an unprecedented development, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent shortly before Election Day, would realistically alter the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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