Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stated that Mojtaba remains alive, exercises final authority, and operates from a secure domestic location amid ongoing conflict, citing security needs to explain the absence of video, audio, or in-person confirmation. Regime-aligned accounts have described him attending private ceremonies or issuing directives, while external reporting has included unverified claims of injury, limited mobility, or possible foreign medical treatment. Trader pricing on departure markets through late 2026 reflects the lack of credible confirmation that he has left Iranian territory, combined with the regime’s emphasis on continuity of leadership from within the country and persistent threats that favor internal protection over relocation. Upcoming war developments or verified sightings could still shift assessments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$117,838 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
3%
December 31
4%
$117,838 KL.
October 31
$119 KL.
3%
December 31
$806 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stated that Mojtaba remains alive, exercises final authority, and operates from a secure domestic location amid ongoing conflict, citing security needs to explain the absence of video, audio, or in-person confirmation. Regime-aligned accounts have described him attending private ceremonies or issuing directives, while external reporting has included unverified claims of injury, limited mobility, or possible foreign medical treatment. Trader pricing on departure markets through late 2026 reflects the lack of credible confirmation that he has left Iranian territory, combined with the regime’s emphasis on continuity of leadership from within the country and persistent threats that favor internal protection over relocation. Upcoming war developments or verified sightings could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$117,838Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stated that Mojtaba remains alive, exercises final authority, and operates from a secure domestic location amid ongoing conflict, citing security needs to explain the absence of video, audio, or in-person confirmation. Regime-aligned accounts have described him attending private ceremonies or issuing directives, while external reporting has included unverified claims of injury, limited mobility, or possible foreign medical treatment. Trader pricing on departure markets through late 2026 reflects the lack of credible confirmation that he has left Iranian territory, combined with the regime’s emphasis on continuity of leadership from within the country and persistent threats that favor internal protection over relocation. Upcoming war developments or verified sightings could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$117,838Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since succeeding his father as Iran’s Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stated that Mojtaba remains alive, exercises final authority, and operates from a secure domestic location amid ongoing conflict, citing security needs to explain the absence of video, audio, or in-person confirmation. Regime-aligned accounts have described him attending private ceremonies or issuing directives, while external reporting has included unverified claims of injury, limited mobility, or possible foreign medical treatment. Trader pricing on departure markets through late 2026 reflects the lack of credible confirmation that he has left Iranian territory, combined with the regime’s emphasis on continuity of leadership from within the country and persistent threats that favor internal protection over relocation. Upcoming war developments or verified sightings could still shift assessments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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