Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật9% khả năng
$31,918 KL.
$31,918 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
9% khả năng
$31,918 KL.
$31,918 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,918Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$31,918Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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