Apple's established pattern of unveiling new iPhone models each September underpins the 97% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual cadence for more than a decade, with development cycles for large language model enhancements, camera upgrades, and chip improvements already underway based on prior timelines. Traders view the absence of announced delays or major redesigns as strong confirmation of continuity. While rare supply-chain disruptions, regulatory hurdles in regions like the EU, or unforeseen technical issues with new hardware could still alter plans, historical precedent makes such shifts improbable before the typical launch window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật97% khả năng
$167,258 KL.
$167,258 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
97% khả năng
$167,258 KL.
$167,258 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of unveiling new iPhone models each September underpins the 97% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual cadence for more than a decade, with development cycles for large language model enhancements, camera upgrades, and chip improvements already underway based on prior timelines. Traders view the absence of announced delays or major redesigns as strong confirmation of continuity. While rare supply-chain disruptions, regulatory hurdles in regions like the EU, or unforeseen technical issues with new hardware could still alter plans, historical precedent makes such shifts improbable before the typical launch window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$167,258Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of unveiling new iPhone models each September underpins the 97% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual cadence for more than a decade, with development cycles for large language model enhancements, camera upgrades, and chip improvements already underway based on prior timelines. Traders view the absence of announced delays or major redesigns as strong confirmation of continuity. While rare supply-chain disruptions, regulatory hurdles in regions like the EU, or unforeseen technical issues with new hardware could still alter plans, historical precedent makes such shifts improbable before the typical launch window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$167,258Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established pattern of unveiling new iPhone models each September underpins the 97% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual cadence for more than a decade, with development cycles for large language model enhancements, camera upgrades, and chip improvements already underway based on prior timelines. Traders view the absence of announced delays or major redesigns as strong confirmation of continuity. While rare supply-chain disruptions, regulatory hurdles in regions like the EU, or unforeseen technical issues with new hardware could still alter plans, historical precedent makes such shifts improbable before the typical launch window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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