Apple's consistent annual flagship release cadence, backed by multiple supply-chain reports and analyst briefings from early 2026, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent WWDC timing clues and component production timelines point to September availability for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model featuring the A20 chip and upgraded camera systems. While historical precedent favors on-schedule hardware rollouts, realistic risks include component shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets such as China, or last-minute feature adjustments that could shift non-Pro variants into 2027. Traders appear to weigh these low-probability disruptions against decades of reliable execution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$116,457 KL.
$116,457 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$116,457 KL.
$116,457 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual flagship release cadence, backed by multiple supply-chain reports and analyst briefings from early 2026, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent WWDC timing clues and component production timelines point to September availability for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model featuring the A20 chip and upgraded camera systems. While historical precedent favors on-schedule hardware rollouts, realistic risks include component shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets such as China, or last-minute feature adjustments that could shift non-Pro variants into 2027. Traders appear to weigh these low-probability disruptions against decades of reliable execution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$116,457Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual flagship release cadence, backed by multiple supply-chain reports and analyst briefings from early 2026, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent WWDC timing clues and component production timelines point to September availability for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model featuring the A20 chip and upgraded camera systems. While historical precedent favors on-schedule hardware rollouts, realistic risks include component shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets such as China, or last-minute feature adjustments that could shift non-Pro variants into 2027. Traders appear to weigh these low-probability disruptions against decades of reliable execution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$116,457Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual flagship release cadence, backed by multiple supply-chain reports and analyst briefings from early 2026, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Recent WWDC timing clues and component production timelines point to September availability for the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and a new foldable model featuring the A20 chip and upgraded camera systems. While historical precedent favors on-schedule hardware rollouts, realistic risks include component shortages, regulatory hurdles in major markets such as China, or last-minute feature adjustments that could shift non-Pro variants into 2027. Traders appear to weigh these low-probability disruptions against decades of reliable execution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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