The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於230K-245K 45%
少於23萬 44%
275K-290K 44%
290K-305K 44%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於23萬
44%
230K-245K
45%
245K-260K
44%
260K-275K
42%
275K-290K
44%
290K-305K
44%
305千-320千
44%
32萬+
44%
230K-245K 45%
少於23萬 44%
275K-290K 44%
290K-305K 44%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少於23萬
$0 交易量
44%
230K-245K
$0 交易量
45%
245K-260K
$0 交易量
44%
260K-275K
$0 交易量
42%
275K-290K
$0 交易量
44%
290K-305K
$0 交易量
44%
305千-320千
$0 交易量
44%
32萬+
$0 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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