The Federal District’s two Senate seats, contested on October 4, 2026, feature a crowded field where Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads most surveys as the presumptive first-place finisher. Trader pricing for second place remains compressed because multiple right-leaning figures—Bia Kicis, Ronaldo Fonseca, Guto Felício, and others—draw overlapping support from the same conservative base while left-leaning options such as Erika Kokay split the opposing vote. Recent party conventions, Michelle’s formal confirmation, and internal PL negotiations over slates have kept alignments fluid without producing a clear consolidation behind any single challenger. Late shifts in turnout among evangelical or public-sector voters, additional withdrawals, or fresh polling that isolates one contender could quickly widen the gap reflected in current market prices.