Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 4?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,104 交易量
$87,104 交易量
2026-05-04
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,104 交易量
$87,104 交易量
2026-05-04
21°C or below
$1,384 交易量
No
22°C
$2,476 交易量
No
23°C
$2,353 交易量
No
24°C
$2,251 交易量
No
25°C
$6,604 交易量
No
26°C
$12,354 交易量
No
27°C
$8,956 交易量
No
28°C
$21,688 交易量
No
29°C
$8,518 交易量
Yes
30°C
$10,258 交易量
No
31°C or higher
$10,262 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$87,104結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$87,104結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Chengdu on May 4, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—recording mid-afternoon peaks near 28.6–29°C under mostly sunny skies and a persistent high-pressure ridge enhancing solar heating. China Meteorological Administration reports confirm this aligns with above-normal early-May warming in Chengdu's humid subtropical climate, where historical averages hover around 26°C, bolstered by ECMWF and GFS model consensus for a 29°C cap following yesterday's cooler 23°C high. As evening cooling sets in past peak diurnal heating (typically 2–4 p.m. local time), higher readings are improbable; final data finalizes at midnight, with post-finalization revisions ignored, though an unlikely measurement adjustment before then could shift outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions