Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Lagos on May 12?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 12?
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$168,740 交易量
$168,740 交易量
2026-05-12
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
Yes
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$168,740 交易量
$168,740 交易量
2026-05-12
27°C or below
$5,674 交易量
No
28°C
$2,743 交易量
No
29°C
$1,757 交易量
No
30°C
$2,403 交易量
No
31°C
$2,660 交易量
No
32°C
$7,039 交易量
No
33°C
$60,657 交易量
No
34°C
$11,874 交易量
No
35°C
$6,236 交易量
No
36°C
$4,719 交易量
No
37°C or higher
$62,979 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 10, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$168,740結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:22 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$168,740結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:22 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 37°C or higher in Lagos on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (station DNMM via Wunderground and NiMet monitoring), where midday readings have already exceeded this mark under clear skies, low wind shear, and reduced relative humidity below 60%—conditions atypical for May's transition to wetter patterns. This surpasses the monthly climatological average high of 31–32°C, reflecting a localized heat dome amplified by urban heat island effects in Lagos. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions by NiMet for sensor anomalies or unaccounted cloud bursts capping the official daily maximum, with final resolution pending evening data finalization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions