Recent European model guidance from the ECMWF and DWD ensembles has converged on a Munich maximum of 32–33°C for June 21, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Clear skies, light easterly flow, and modest downslope warming from the Alps favor efficient surface heating without significant cloud suppression or mixing. Ensemble spread remains narrow but allows for 1°C differences tied to minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or the precise timing of peak insolation. Historical June extremes in southern Bavaria rarely exceed 34°C absent a strong Föhn event, supporting the low probabilities assigned to 35°C and higher while leaving room for last-minute adjustments from updated short-range runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Munich on June 21?
Highest temperature in Munich on June 21?
34°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$62,721 交易量
$62,721 交易量
2026-06-21
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$62,721 交易量
$62,721 交易量
2026-06-21
29°C or below
$3,697 交易量
No
30°C
$2,041 交易量
No
31°C
$4,150 交易量
No
32°C
$6,814 交易量
No
33°C
$11,349 交易量
No
34°C
$11,664 交易量
Yes
35°C
$8,012 交易量
No
36°C
$7,743 交易量
No
37°C
$4,575 交易量
No
38°C
$1,448 交易量
No
39°C or higher
$1,226 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model guidance from the ECMWF and DWD ensembles has converged on a Munich maximum of 32–33°C for June 21, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Clear skies, light easterly flow, and modest downslope warming from the Alps favor efficient surface heating without significant cloud suppression or mixing. Ensemble spread remains narrow but allows for 1°C differences tied to minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or the precise timing of peak insolation. Historical June extremes in southern Bavaria rarely exceed 34°C absent a strong Föhn event, supporting the low probabilities assigned to 35°C and higher while leaving room for last-minute adjustments from updated short-range runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$62,721結束日期
2026-06-21市場開放時間
Jun 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model guidance from the ECMWF and DWD ensembles has converged on a Munich maximum of 32–33°C for June 21, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Clear skies, light easterly flow, and modest downslope warming from the Alps favor efficient surface heating without significant cloud suppression or mixing. Ensemble spread remains narrow but allows for 1°C differences tied to minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or the precise timing of peak insolation. Historical June extremes in southern Bavaria rarely exceed 34°C absent a strong Föhn event, supporting the low probabilities assigned to 35°C and higher while leaving room for last-minute adjustments from updated short-range runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$62,721結束日期
2026-06-21市場開放時間
Jun 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent European model guidance from the ECMWF and DWD ensembles has converged on a Munich maximum of 32–33°C for June 21, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those bins. Clear skies, light easterly flow, and modest downslope warming from the Alps favor efficient surface heating without significant cloud suppression or mixing. Ensemble spread remains narrow but allows for 1°C differences tied to minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or the precise timing of peak insolation. Historical June extremes in southern Bavaria rarely exceed 34°C absent a strong Föhn event, supporting the low probabilities assigned to 35°C and higher while leaving room for last-minute adjustments from updated short-range runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions