National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
64-65°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$150,323 交易量
$150,323 交易量
2026-05-01
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
Yes
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
No
64-65°F 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$150,323 交易量
$150,323 交易量
2026-05-01
53°F or below
$2,959 交易量
No
54-55°F
$4,402 交易量
No
56-57°F
$9,080 交易量
No
58-59°F
$9,960 交易量
No
60-61°F
$17,869 交易量
No
62-63°F
$19,769 交易量
No
64-65°F
$35,123 交易量
Yes
66-67°F
$22,182 交易量
No
68-69°F
$14,435 交易量
No
70-71°F
$5,364 交易量
No
72°F or higher
$9,179 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$150,323結束日期
2026-05-01市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$150,323結束日期
2026-05-01市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
National Weather Service observations from New York City's Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 64°F on May 1, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability on the 64-65°F outcome as traders align with this verified measurement. A persistent cool upper-level trough over the Northeast suppressed warming, with cloudy skies, light winds, and below-normal daytime heating keeping highs well shy of the 68°F climatological average for early May. This reflects strong consensus from pre-event forecast models like GFS and ECMWF, which projected upper-50s to low-60s peaks. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data correction by NOAA, such as sensor recalibration, though official records are typically final within 24 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions