Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance, along with national meteorological service outlooks, point to maximum temperatures of 19–20 °C in Warsaw on 23 August, underpinning the market’s tight clustering at those levels. Late-summer cooling under generally zonal flow, modest Atlantic moisture, and variable cloud cover are limiting daytime heating while preventing sharp drops, consistent with climatological norms for the period. Model spread remains modest, with small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing accounting for the narrow 1 °C resolution bins. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will refine wind and insolation details that determine whether the peak edges toward 21 °C or settles at 19 °C.