Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月22日華沙的最高溫度？
8月22日華沙的最高溫度？
21°C 38%
22°C 25%
20°C 17%
23°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
17%
21°C
38%
22°C
25%
23°C
8%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 38%
22°C 25%
20°C 17%
23°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
16°C or below
$372 交易量
<1%
17°C
$216 交易量
1%
18°C
$69 交易量
1%
19°C
$10 交易量
5%
20°C
$162 交易量
17%
21°C
$17 交易量
38%
22°C
$124 交易量
25%
23°C
$0 交易量
8%
24°C
$20 交易量
3%
25°C
$157 交易量
1%
26°C or higher
$360 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,508結束日期
2026-08-22市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,508結束日期
2026-08-22市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETLatest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position 21°C as the modal outcome for Warsaw’s August 22 maximum, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge and modest southerly flow advecting air masses with limited diurnal heating. Probabilistic spreads cluster tightly around 20–22°C, consistent with climatological August baselines near 23°C but tempered by recent model consensus on weaker insolation and possible boundary-layer moisture. Shorter-range updates from the Polish Institute of Meteorology show minimal day-to-day shifts, keeping implied probabilities anchored while highlighting resolution sensitivity to exact timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders monitor the next 00Z and 12Z cycles for any eastward shift in the ridge that could lift maxima by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions