Recent KMA guidance points to a 33°C high for Seoul/Incheon on August 20 under mostly cloudy skies and modest afternoon rain chances, yet trader consensus clusters on 29–30°C. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on the strength of the subtropical ridge versus any approaching short-wave trough, which modulates solar insolation and sea-breeze cooling at the coastal Incheon station. Higher humidity and increased low-level cloud cover can shave 2–3°C off peak readings by limiting surface heating, while clearer intervals or stronger downslope flow would push maxima toward 31°C or above. Ensemble spread in global and regional models remains the dominant uncertainty two days out, with resolution depending on the next 12–24 h of observational updates from surface stations and soundings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月20日首爾(仁川)最高溫度?
29°C 40%
30°C 34%
28°C 13%
31°C 9%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
13%
29°C
40%
30°C
34%
31°C
9%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 40%
30°C 34%
28°C 13%
31°C 9%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
13%
29°C
40%
30°C
34%
31°C
9%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent KMA guidance points to a 33°C high for Seoul/Incheon on August 20 under mostly cloudy skies and modest afternoon rain chances, yet trader consensus clusters on 29–30°C. Differentiating these outcomes hinges on the strength of the subtropical ridge versus any approaching short-wave trough, which modulates solar insolation and sea-breeze cooling at the coastal Incheon station. Higher humidity and increased low-level cloud cover can shave 2–3°C off peak readings by limiting surface heating, while clearer intervals or stronger downslope flow would push maxima toward 31°C or above. Ensemble spread in global and regional models remains the dominant uncertainty two days out, with resolution depending on the next 12–24 h of observational updates from surface stations and soundings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions