Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models referenced by AccuWeather and Timeanddate point to a Tokyo high near 31°C on August 18, supporting the market's leading 31°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability. Key variables include cloud cover and precipitation chances that could suppress daytime heating, typical summer humidity levels above 70% that influence observed maxima, and steering patterns from nearby high-pressure systems. Ensemble model runs show a narrow range centered on 30–32°C, with lower odds for 29°C or below reflecting minimal cooling signals and elevated chances for 33°C or higher limited by historical August baselines around 31–32°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could shift trader consensus as land-sea breeze effects and any late-developing moisture resolve.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月18日東京氣溫最高？
8月18日東京氣溫最高？
31°C 35%
30°C 25%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
15%
30°C
25%
31°C
35%
32°C
22%
33°C
6%
34°C
5%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
30°C 25%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
25°C or below
$686 交易量
<1%
26°C
$13 交易量
<1%
27°C
$9 交易量
1%
28°C
$38 交易量
6%
29°C
$60 交易量
15%
30°C
$31 交易量
25%
31°C
$34 交易量
35%
32°C
$12 交易量
22%
33°C
$24 交易量
6%
34°C
$45 交易量
5%
35°C or higher
$35 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models referenced by AccuWeather and Timeanddate point to a Tokyo high near 31°C on August 18, supporting the market's leading 31°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability. Key variables include cloud cover and precipitation chances that could suppress daytime heating, typical summer humidity levels above 70% that influence observed maxima, and steering patterns from nearby high-pressure systems. Ensemble model runs show a narrow range centered on 30–32°C, with lower odds for 29°C or below reflecting minimal cooling signals and elevated chances for 33°C or higher limited by historical August baselines around 31–32°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could shift trader consensus as land-sea breeze effects and any late-developing moisture resolve.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$987結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models referenced by AccuWeather and Timeanddate point to a Tokyo high near 31°C on August 18, supporting the market's leading 31°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability. Key variables include cloud cover and precipitation chances that could suppress daytime heating, typical summer humidity levels above 70% that influence observed maxima, and steering patterns from nearby high-pressure systems. Ensemble model runs show a narrow range centered on 30–32°C, with lower odds for 29°C or below reflecting minimal cooling signals and elevated chances for 33°C or higher limited by historical August baselines around 31–32°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could shift trader consensus as land-sea breeze effects and any late-developing moisture resolve.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$987結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETCurrent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models referenced by AccuWeather and Timeanddate point to a Tokyo high near 31°C on August 18, supporting the market's leading 31°C outcome at 34.5% implied probability. Key variables include cloud cover and precipitation chances that could suppress daytime heating, typical summer humidity levels above 70% that influence observed maxima, and steering patterns from nearby high-pressure systems. Ensemble model runs show a narrow range centered on 30–32°C, with lower odds for 29°C or below reflecting minimal cooling signals and elevated chances for 33°C or higher limited by historical August baselines around 31–32°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could shift trader consensus as land-sea breeze effects and any late-developing moisture resolve.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions