Current short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum near 11°C for Wellington on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 59% implied probability for that outcome. August climatology for the region shows average highs of 12°C, moderated by the surrounding ocean and frequent southerly winds that limit daytime warming despite clear spells. Recent observations through mid-August reflect near-average winter conditions with no significant warm anomalies, keeping 12°C (31.5%) as a plausible secondary outcome if northerly flows strengthen. Model consensus emphasizes modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 10–12°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 18th will refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月18日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
8月18日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
11°C 60%
12°C 31%
10°C 9%
13°C 2%
最新
$28,275 交易量
最新
$28,275 交易量
2026-08-18
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
9%
11°C
60%
12°C
31%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 60%
12°C 31%
10°C 9%
13°C 2%
最新
$28,275 交易量
最新
$28,275 交易量
2026-08-18
6°C or below
$334 交易量
<1%
7°C
$845 交易量
<1%
8°C
$1,218 交易量
<1%
9°C
$1,207 交易量
2%
10°C
$3,341 交易量
9%
11°C
$4,180 交易量
60%
12°C
$9,532 交易量
31%
13°C
$2,834 交易量
2%
14°C
$1,400 交易量
1%
15°C
$1,554 交易量
<1%
16°C or higher
$1,831 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum near 11°C for Wellington on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 59% implied probability for that outcome. August climatology for the region shows average highs of 12°C, moderated by the surrounding ocean and frequent southerly winds that limit daytime warming despite clear spells. Recent observations through mid-August reflect near-average winter conditions with no significant warm anomalies, keeping 12°C (31.5%) as a plausible secondary outcome if northerly flows strengthen. Model consensus emphasizes modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 10–12°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 18th will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$28,275結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum near 11°C for Wellington on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 59% implied probability for that outcome. August climatology for the region shows average highs of 12°C, moderated by the surrounding ocean and frequent southerly winds that limit daytime warming despite clear spells. Recent observations through mid-August reflect near-average winter conditions with no significant warm anomalies, keeping 12°C (31.5%) as a plausible secondary outcome if northerly flows strengthen. Model consensus emphasizes modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 10–12°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 18th will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$28,275結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETCurrent short-term forecasts from agencies like MetService and international models indicate a daily maximum near 11°C for Wellington on August 18, aligning with the market's leading 59% implied probability for that outcome. August climatology for the region shows average highs of 12°C, moderated by the surrounding ocean and frequent southerly winds that limit daytime warming despite clear spells. Recent observations through mid-August reflect near-average winter conditions with no significant warm anomalies, keeping 12°C (31.5%) as a plausible secondary outcome if northerly flows strengthen. Model consensus emphasizes modest variability from cloud cover and wind patterns rather than extremes, supporting the tight clustering around 10–12°C. Updated guidance ahead of the 18th will refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions