Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月30日前發生大型太陽風暴？
4月30日前發生大型太陽風暴？
是
$13,998 交易量
$13,998 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$13,998 交易量
$13,998 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$13,998結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$13,998結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions