Recent intense explosive and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including continuous Strombolian explosions and ash emissions from the Voragine crater plus multiple lava flows from flank vents in July and August 2026, has kept the market nearly even at 51% for no VEI 2+ eruption this year. Key uncertainties center on precise VEI classification, which hinges on official INGV measurements of erupted volume, plume height, and tephra dispersal rather than visual intensity alone, as many paroxysmal episodes register VEI 1–2 or borderline. Continued seismic and gas monitoring, plus any escalation in summit activity or new fissure openings, could quickly shift trader consensus if data confirm or rule out the required explosivity threshold before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
0% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Recent intense explosive and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including continuous Strombolian explosions and ash emissions from the Voragine crater plus multiple lava flows from flank vents in July and August 2026, has kept the market nearly even at 51% for no VEI 2+ eruption this year. Key uncertainties center on precise VEI classification, which hinges on official INGV measurements of erupted volume, plume height, and tephra dispersal rather than visual intensity alone, as many paroxysmal episodes register VEI 1–2 or borderline. Continued seismic and gas monitoring, plus any escalation in summit activity or new fissure openings, could quickly shift trader consensus if data confirm or rule out the required explosivity threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Recent intense explosive and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including continuous Strombolian explosions and ash emissions from the Voragine crater plus multiple lava flows from flank vents in July and August 2026, has kept the market nearly even at 51% for no VEI 2+ eruption this year. Key uncertainties center on precise VEI classification, which hinges on official INGV measurements of erupted volume, plume height, and tephra dispersal rather than visual intensity alone, as many paroxysmal episodes register VEI 1–2 or borderline. Continued seismic and gas monitoring, plus any escalation in summit activity or new fissure openings, could quickly shift trader consensus if data confirm or rule out the required explosivity threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent intense explosive and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including continuous Strombolian explosions and ash emissions from the Voragine crater plus multiple lava flows from flank vents in July and August 2026, has kept the market nearly even at 51% for no VEI 2+ eruption this year. Key uncertainties center on precise VEI classification, which hinges on official INGV measurements of erupted volume, plume height, and tephra dispersal rather than visual intensity alone, as many paroxysmal episodes register VEI 1–2 or borderline. Continued seismic and gas monitoring, plus any escalation in summit activity or new fissure openings, could quickly shift trader consensus if data confirm or rule out the required explosivity threshold before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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