Mount Etna's recent 2026 activity, including January fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove and July Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater with visible plumes, has kept the market near even as these events register below VEI 2 thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects Etna's baseline effusive-explosive pattern monitored by INGV, where sustained high gas emissions and seismic swarms could drive escalation, yet current model consensus points to mostly low-intensity output through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether renewed pressurization will produce a discrete explosive phase reaching VEI 2—characterized by 1–5 km plumes and significant tephra—or remain confined to milder Strombolian and effusive regimes typical of the volcano's historical record. Continuous INGV seismic, deformation, and gas-flux updates, plus any new eruptive episodes in the coming weeks, will likely resolve the balance by clarifying intensification potential.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's recent 2026 activity, including January fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove and July Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater with visible plumes, has kept the market near even as these events register below VEI 2 thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects Etna's baseline effusive-explosive pattern monitored by INGV, where sustained high gas emissions and seismic swarms could drive escalation, yet current model consensus points to mostly low-intensity output through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether renewed pressurization will produce a discrete explosive phase reaching VEI 2—characterized by 1–5 km plumes and significant tephra—or remain confined to milder Strombolian and effusive regimes typical of the volcano's historical record. Continuous INGV seismic, deformation, and gas-flux updates, plus any new eruptive episodes in the coming weeks, will likely resolve the balance by clarifying intensification potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's recent 2026 activity, including January fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove and July Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater with visible plumes, has kept the market near even as these events register below VEI 2 thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects Etna's baseline effusive-explosive pattern monitored by INGV, where sustained high gas emissions and seismic swarms could drive escalation, yet current model consensus points to mostly low-intensity output through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether renewed pressurization will produce a discrete explosive phase reaching VEI 2—characterized by 1–5 km plumes and significant tephra—or remain confined to milder Strombolian and effusive regimes typical of the volcano's historical record. Continuous INGV seismic, deformation, and gas-flux updates, plus any new eruptive episodes in the coming weeks, will likely resolve the balance by clarifying intensification potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's recent 2026 activity, including January fissure-fed lava flows in Valle del Bove and July Strombolian explosions at Voragine crater with visible plumes, has kept the market near even as these events register below VEI 2 thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects Etna's baseline effusive-explosive pattern monitored by INGV, where sustained high gas emissions and seismic swarms could drive escalation, yet current model consensus points to mostly low-intensity output through year-end. Key uncertainties center on whether renewed pressurization will produce a discrete explosive phase reaching VEI 2—characterized by 1–5 km plumes and significant tephra—or remain confined to milder Strombolian and effusive regimes typical of the volcano's historical record. Continuous INGV seismic, deformation, and gas-flux updates, plus any new eruptive episodes in the coming weeks, will likely resolve the balance by clarifying intensification potential.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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