Mount Vesuvius remains in a quiescent state under continuous INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano monitoring, with only low-level fumarolic activity and persistently low-energy seismicity reported through mid-2026. No significant ground deformation, seismic swarms, or elevated gas emissions have been detected, consistent with the green alert level and the volcano’s dormancy since its last eruption in 1944. Historical patterns show that VEI 1+ events typically follow clear precursory unrest after decades-long repose periods, supporting the market’s 95.1% implied probability of no such eruption before year-end. Sudden phreatic or minor explosive activity remains theoretically possible but would require rapid, undetected escalation in the remaining months.