Mount Vesuvius remains at the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano’s green (base) alert level as of the August 2026 monthly bulletin, with only low-energy background seismicity—112 events, 95% below magnitude 1.0—concentrated in the crater and showing no long-period signals or magmatic sources. GNSS networks detect no ground deformation attributable to magma, fumarole temperatures are stable, and geochemical trends indicate declining hydrothermal activity, consistent with the volcano’s quiescent phase since its last VEI 3–4 eruption in 1944. With roughly three months left in 2026 and no precursors observed, traders assign a 95.4% implied probability to “No.” An abrupt seismic swarm or rapid inflation could theoretically shift conditions, though historical patterns and current multiparametric data make escalation before year-end highly unlikely.