Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official nowcasts place Q3 expansion near 2.3% annualized, while consensus forecasts from the IMF and S&P Global project full-year real GDP growth of 2.2–2.4%, supported by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and a labor market with unemployment near 4%. Monetary policy easing and AI-related investment have further anchored positive growth expectations. Although tail risks such as renewed energy price spikes from Middle East tensions or an abrupt slowdown in technology spending could weigh on activity, these scenarios are viewed as insufficient to push annual output into contraction given current momentum and policy buffers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$33,280 交易量
$33,280 交易量
2027-01-28
是
2% 機率
$33,280 交易量
$33,280 交易量
2027-01-28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official nowcasts place Q3 expansion near 2.3% annualized, while consensus forecasts from the IMF and S&P Global project full-year real GDP growth of 2.2–2.4%, supported by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and a labor market with unemployment near 4%. Monetary policy easing and AI-related investment have further anchored positive growth expectations. Although tail risks such as renewed energy price spikes from Middle East tensions or an abrupt slowdown in technology spending could weigh on activity, these scenarios are viewed as insufficient to push annual output into contraction given current momentum and policy buffers.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$33,280結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official nowcasts place Q3 expansion near 2.3% annualized, while consensus forecasts from the IMF and S&P Global project full-year real GDP growth of 2.2–2.4%, supported by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and a labor market with unemployment near 4%. Monetary policy easing and AI-related investment have further anchored positive growth expectations. Although tail risks such as renewed energy price spikes from Middle East tensions or an abrupt slowdown in technology spending could weigh on activity, these scenarios are viewed as insufficient to push annual output into contraction given current momentum and policy buffers.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$33,280結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRobust U.S. economic momentum underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official nowcasts place Q3 expansion near 2.3% annualized, while consensus forecasts from the IMF and S&P Global project full-year real GDP growth of 2.2–2.4%, supported by resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and a labor market with unemployment near 4%. Monetary policy easing and AI-related investment have further anchored positive growth expectations. Although tail risks such as renewed energy price spikes from Middle East tensions or an abrupt slowdown in technology spending could weigh on activity, these scenarios are viewed as insufficient to push annual output into contraction given current momentum and policy buffers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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