Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering between 1.9% and 2.3% for the full year, anchors trader expectations around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending, supported by solid labor market conditions and productivity gains from AI-related investment, has offset headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky inflation readings near 3.4%. The New York Fed’s Q3 nowcast near 2.26% and June FOMC median projection of 2.2% reinforce this central tendency, while risks from potential further monetary tightening and tariff effects keep probabilities for outcomes above 2.5% or below 1.5% more contained. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming third-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2.0–2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 26.5%
>2.5% 14.5%
低於0.5% 7.3%
$64,484 交易量
$64,484 交易量
2027-01-28
低於0.5%
7%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
27%
2.0–2.5%
47%
>2.5%
14%
2.0–2.5% 47%
1.5–2.0% 26.5%
>2.5% 14.5%
低於0.5% 7.3%
$64,484 交易量
$64,484 交易量
2027-01-28
低於0.5%
$7,836 交易量
7%
0.5–1.0%
$17,507 交易量
2%
1.0–1.5%
$4,102 交易量
6%
1.5–2.0%
$8,134 交易量
27%
2.0–2.5%
$10,255 交易量
47%
>2.5%
$16,650 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering between 1.9% and 2.3% for the full year, anchors trader expectations around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending, supported by solid labor market conditions and productivity gains from AI-related investment, has offset headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky inflation readings near 3.4%. The New York Fed’s Q3 nowcast near 2.26% and June FOMC median projection of 2.2% reinforce this central tendency, while risks from potential further monetary tightening and tariff effects keep probabilities for outcomes above 2.5% or below 1.5% more contained. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming third-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$64,484結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering between 1.9% and 2.3% for the full year, anchors trader expectations around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending, supported by solid labor market conditions and productivity gains from AI-related investment, has offset headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky inflation readings near 3.4%. The New York Fed’s Q3 nowcast near 2.26% and June FOMC median projection of 2.2% reinforce this central tendency, while risks from potential further monetary tightening and tariff effects keep probabilities for outcomes above 2.5% or below 1.5% more contained. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming third-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$64,484結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRecent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering between 1.9% and 2.3% for the full year, anchors trader expectations around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending, supported by solid labor market conditions and productivity gains from AI-related investment, has offset headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments and sticky inflation readings near 3.4%. The New York Fed’s Q3 nowcast near 2.26% and June FOMC median projection of 2.2% reinforce this central tendency, while risks from potential further monetary tightening and tariff effects keep probabilities for outcomes above 2.5% or below 1.5% more contained. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming third-quarter GDP release represent key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions