Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, his strong primary performance against limited opposition, and a weak Republican challenge. Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator, secured the GOP nomination only as a write-in after the initial candidate was disqualified, leaving him with minimal visibility, fundraising, and ballot access. A late-August poll showed Luján leading 53% to 38%, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at over 96% for Luján reflects these structural factors and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in similar states. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$25,948 交易量
$25,948 交易量
2026-11-02
班·瑞·盧揚（民主黨）
96%
拉里·馬克（共和黨）
4%
$25,948 交易量
$25,948 交易量
2026-11-02
班·瑞·盧揚（民主黨）
$16,689 交易量
96%
拉里·馬克（共和黨）
$9,258 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, his strong primary performance against limited opposition, and a weak Republican challenge. Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator, secured the GOP nomination only as a write-in after the initial candidate was disqualified, leaving him with minimal visibility, fundraising, and ballot access. A late-August poll showed Luján leading 53% to 38%, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at over 96% for Luján reflects these structural factors and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in similar states. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$25,948結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, his strong primary performance against limited opposition, and a weak Republican challenge. Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator, secured the GOP nomination only as a write-in after the initial candidate was disqualified, leaving him with minimal visibility, fundraising, and ballot access. A late-August poll showed Luján leading 53% to 38%, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at over 96% for Luján reflects these structural factors and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in similar states. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,948結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, his strong primary performance against limited opposition, and a weak Republican challenge. Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator, secured the GOP nomination only as a write-in after the initial candidate was disqualified, leaving him with minimal visibility, fundraising, and ballot access. A late-August poll showed Luján leading 53% to 38%, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at over 96% for Luján reflects these structural factors and historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in similar states. A major scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter the outcome before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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