Market icon

北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?

Market icon

北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?

>99% 機率
Polymarket

$36,602 交易量

>99% 機率
Polymarket

$36,602 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's multiple short-range ballistic missile launches from the Wonsan area toward the East Sea on April 8, detected and confirmed by South Korea's military, Japan's Self-Defense Forces, and US Indo-Pacific Command, have driven trader consensus to 100% on Yes well ahead of the April 30 deadline. This marks the latest in a series of frequent tests this year, including March barrages of nuclear-capable rockets and cruise missiles from new warships overseen by Kim Jong Un, underscoring Pyongyang's ongoing weapons development amid regional tensions. With official verifications in place, market resolution to Yes appears certain, though extraordinary disputes over launch classification or failed attributions could theoretically delay it.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$36,602
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Apr 7, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's multiple short-range ballistic missile launches from the Wonsan area toward the East Sea on April 8, detected and confirmed by South Korea's military, Japan's Self-Defense Forces, and US Indo-Pacific Command, have driven trader consensus to 100% on Yes well ahead of the April 30 deadline. This marks the latest in a series of frequent tests this year, including March barrages of nuclear-capable rockets and cruise missiles from new warships overseen by Kim Jong Un, underscoring Pyongyang's ongoing weapons development amid regional tensions. With official verifications in place, market resolution to Yes appears certain, though extraordinary disputes over launch classification or failed attributions could theoretically delay it.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$36,602
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Apr 7, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "朝鮮在2026年4月30日之前進行導彈測試/發射?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?" has generated $36.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?" is "朝鮮在2026年4月30日之前進行導彈測試/發射?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "北韓在2026年4月30日前進行導彈試射/發射?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.