North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-04-30
最新
最新
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市場開放時間： Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
交易量
$121結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$121結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches on April 7-8 toward the Sea of Japan—its second such salvo in days following Pyongyang's declaration of South Korea as its "principal enemy"—have reinforced trader consensus on a 58% implied probability of further tests by April 30. State media KCNA confirmed these included cluster-bomb warheads on Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles, violating UN sanctions amid stalled inter-Korean diplomacy and ongoing weapons development under Kim Jong Un's supervision. March saw multiple barrages, including from new destroyers and rocket systems, signaling no de-escalation; traders weigh this cadence against potential US-South joint exercises or rare pauses, viewing the next three weeks as ripe for provocation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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