Surging spring break demand has solidified the 2.4M-2.6M passenger bin as the dominant outcome at 78.5% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on sustained post-winter travel recovery backed by real capital on Polymarket. Recent TSA data shows screenings averaging 2.45 million daily last week—up 6% year-over-year—with March 24 at 2.41 million, underscoring resilient consumer spending amid strong March jobs data and stable jet fuel prices below $2.80/gallon. Mild weather across major hubs like Atlanta and Dallas bolsters optimism, though the 2.2M-2.4M alternative at 23.5% accounts for potential Monday post-weekend dips, while upside bins remain marginal absent capacity surges. Good Friday on March 29 looms as the next catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2.4M-2.6M 71%
2.2M-2.4M 23%
<2.2M 3.1%
2.6M-2.8M 2.1%
$1,536 交易量
$1,536 交易量
<2.2M
7%
2.2M-2.4M
23%
2.4M-2.6M
78%
2.6M-2.8M
2%
2.8M-3.0M
1%
>3.0M
1%
2.4M-2.6M 71%
2.2M-2.4M 23%
<2.2M 3.1%
2.6M-2.8M 2.1%
$1,536 交易量
$1,536 交易量
<2.2M
7%
2.2M-2.4M
23%
2.4M-2.6M
78%
2.6M-2.8M
2%
2.8M-3.0M
1%
>3.0M
1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Surging spring break demand has solidified the 2.4M-2.6M passenger bin as the dominant outcome at 78.5% market-implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on sustained post-winter travel recovery backed by real capital on Polymarket. Recent TSA data shows screenings averaging 2.45 million daily last week—up 6% year-over-year—with March 24 at 2.41 million, underscoring resilient consumer spending amid strong March jobs data and stable jet fuel prices below $2.80/gallon. Mild weather across major hubs like Atlanta and Dallas bolsters optimism, though the 2.2M-2.4M alternative at 23.5% accounts for potential Monday post-weekend dips, while upside bins remain marginal absent capacity surges. Good Friday on March 29 looms as the next catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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