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政治·機場

Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Market icon
政治·機場

Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 27

22% chance
Polymarket

$449 交易量

22% chance
Polymarket

$449 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Clear weather forecasts across major US aviation hubs and no FAA ground stops or system outages announced for March 27 have driven trader consensus to price "No" at 79.5% for over 450 flight cancellations. March 26 saw only around 250 cancellations nationwide per FlightAware data, well below the threshold, amid stabilizing post-winter storm conditions in the Northeast and Midwest. Absent major disruptions like severe thunderstorms, airline staffing issues, or technical glitches—none of which are currently projected by NOAA or airline schedules—traders anticipate normal operations with under 400 cancellations, consistent with recent averages during calm periods. Any late-emerging volcanic ash, cyber incidents, or unexpected labor actions could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$449
結束日期
Mar 27, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 4:09 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Clear weather forecasts across major US aviation hubs and no FAA ground stops or system outages announced for March 27 have driven trader consensus to price "No" at 79.5% for over 450 flight cancellations. March 26 saw only around 250 cancellations nationwide per FlightAware data, well below the threshold, amid stabilizing post-winter storm conditions in the Northeast and Midwest. Absent major disruptions like severe thunderstorms, airline staffing issues, or technical glitches—none of which are currently projected by NOAA or airline schedules—traders anticipate normal operations with under 400 cancellations, consistent with recent averages during calm periods. Any late-emerging volcanic ash, cyber incidents, or unexpected labor actions could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 450 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$449
結束日期
Mar 27, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 4:09 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 22% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 22¢, the market collectively assigns a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" is 22% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.