Market icon
政治·全球選舉

巴黎市長選舉

Market icon
政治·全球選舉

巴黎市長選舉

埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜 80%

拉希達·達蒂 20%

索菲亞·奇基魯 <1%

皮埃爾-伊夫·布爾納澤 <1%

Polymarket

$21,713,084 交易量

埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜 80%

拉希達·達蒂 20%

索菲亞·奇基魯 <1%

皮埃爾-伊夫·布爾納澤 <1%

Polymarket

$21,713,084 交易量

Market icon

埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜

$1,002,343 交易量

80%

Market icon

拉希達·達蒂

$1,134,736 交易量

20%

Market icon

索菲亞·奇基魯

$908,362 交易量

<1%

Market icon

皮埃爾-伊夫·布爾納澤

$3,253,382 交易量

<1%

Market icon

莎拉·克納福

$4,688,980 交易量

<1%

Market icon

大衛·貝利亞

$7,871,055 交易量

<1%

Market icon

Thierry Mariani

$2,854,221 交易量

<1%

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
交易量
$21,713,084
結束日期
Mar 31, 2026
市場開放時間
Oct 22, 2025, 7:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Trader consensus strongly favors Emmanuel Grégoire as the frontrunner for the 2026 Paris mayoral election, with 79.5% implied probability driven by his role as first deputy mayor under Anne Hidalgo, her recent endorsement, and Socialist Party primary victory. Polls consistently show him leading at 30-35% in first-round scenarios, bolstered by Paris's left-leaning electorate and weak fragmented opposition. Éric Grégoire's 33% reflects niche trader bets on an independent or alternative challenge, possibly fueled by online discussions, though lacking polling traction. Rachida Dati trails at 20% as the main center-right contender, while others like Pierre-Yves Bournazel and far-left or far-right figures hover near 0.1% amid low visibility. Upcoming national legislative fallout and candidate consolidations could shift these odds.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"巴黎市長選舉" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜" at 80%, followed by "拉希達·達蒂" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "巴黎市長選舉" has generated $21.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "巴黎市長選舉," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "巴黎市長選舉" is "埃馬紐埃爾·格雷瓜" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "拉希達·達蒂" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "巴黎市長選舉" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.