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icon for 西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？
政治·西班牙

西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？

icon for 西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？
政治·西班牙

西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

是

19% 機率
Polymarket

$35,909 交易量

是

19% 機率
Polymarket

$35,909 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez continues to steer the minority PSOE-led government toward completing its term, with the next general election now expected in early or mid-2027 rather than a snap vote before year-end.** Sánchez has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to holding the election on schedule in 2027, possibly February or March, while rejecting alignment with the May 2027 regional and municipal contests. Recent statements emphasize presenting 2026 budgets and exhausting the legislature despite parliamentary fragility, including the withdrawal of Junts support since late 2025 and reliance on extended prior budgets after the 2026 spending plan was rejected. Polls show the PP leading comfortably, yet opposition parties and some coalition partners have not forced a successful motion of no confidence or budget collapse that would trigger dissolution. Sánchez’s public comments in June 2026 left limited room for an early call only if budgets fail, but subsequent messaging has reinforced the 2027 timeline. With no dissolution decree issued and the constitutional window for a 2026 snap election narrowing rapidly, trader pricing at 81.5% against a call this year aligns with the absence of decisive recent catalysts for an immediate election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$35,909
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez continues to steer the minority PSOE-led government toward completing its term, with the next general election now expected in early or mid-2027 rather than a snap vote before year-end.** Sánchez has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to holding the election on schedule in 2027, possibly February or March, while rejecting alignment with the May 2027 regional and municipal contests. Recent statements emphasize presenting 2026 budgets and exhausting the legislature despite parliamentary fragility, including the withdrawal of Junts support since late 2025 and reliance on extended prior budgets after the 2026 spending plan was rejected. Polls show the PP leading comfortably, yet opposition parties and some coalition partners have not forced a successful motion of no confidence or budget collapse that would trigger dissolution. Sánchez’s public comments in June 2026 left limited room for an early call only if budgets fail, but subsequent messaging has reinforced the 2027 timeline. With no dissolution decree issued and the constitutional window for a 2026 snap election narrowing rapidly, trader pricing at 81.5% against a call this year aligns with the absence of decisive recent catalysts for an immediate election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$35,909
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "西班牙在2026年舉行突發選舉？" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？" has generated $35.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？" is "西班牙在2026年舉行突發選舉？" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "西班牙在2026年提前舉行大選？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.