Tesla (TSLA) traders on Polymarket show razor-thin 49% implied probabilities across $360-$405 closing price bins for the week of March 23, signaling high uncertainty amid a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts and macroeconomic risks. Leading the sentiment is TSLA's post-election surge—up over 80% since November on Elon Musk's Trump alliance, record Q4 deliveries of 495,570 vehicles, and Robotaxi event hype—pushing shares toward $380 intraday highs. Counterpressures include softening China EV demand, BYD competition, and EU tariff threats, with Fed's March 18-19 meeting eyeing 25bps cuts that could boost growth stocks. Trader consensus prices in 50/50 odds of $380-$395 close, hinging on pre-earnings momentum before April 22 Q1 report.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於<$360 99%
$360-$365 99%
$365-$370 99%
$370-$375 99%
<$360
99%
$360-$365
99%
$365-$370
99%
$370-$375
99%
$375-$380
99%
$380-$385
99%
$385-$390
99%
$390-$395
99%
$395-$400
99%
$400-$405
99%
>$405
98%
<$360 99%
$360-$365 99%
$365-$370 99%
$370-$375 99%
<$360
99%
$360-$365
99%
$365-$370
99%
$370-$375
99%
$375-$380
99%
$380-$385
99%
$385-$390
99%
$390-$395
99%
$395-$400
99%
$400-$405
99%
>$405
98%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla (TSLA) traders on Polymarket show razor-thin 49% implied probabilities across $360-$405 closing price bins for the week of March 23, signaling high uncertainty amid a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts and macroeconomic risks. Leading the sentiment is TSLA's post-election surge—up over 80% since November on Elon Musk's Trump alliance, record Q4 deliveries of 495,570 vehicles, and Robotaxi event hype—pushing shares toward $380 intraday highs. Counterpressures include softening China EV demand, BYD competition, and EU tariff threats, with Fed's March 18-19 meeting eyeing 25bps cuts that could boost growth stocks. Trader consensus prices in 50/50 odds of $380-$395 close, hinging on pre-earnings momentum before April 22 Q1 report.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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