A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters backing passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum versus 47% opposed, reflecting slim support for the constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts in response to other states' mid-decade changes. However, Republicans report higher voting certainty (85% definite or already voted) than Democrats (77%), with early voting turnout surging in GOP-leaning areas, fueling trader caution. Conflicting polls, including Neighborhood Research & Media's April survey tying at 45% Yes to 46% No among definite voters, highlight volatility ahead of the April 21 special election. Stark partisan splits—Democrats favor unlocking a map shifting seats their way, Republicans view it as overriding the independent commission—keep probabilities clustered tightly around narrow margins, where final turnout and Election Day surges could create separation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Pass 6-9% 45%
Pass 15%+ 43%
Pass 3-6% 43%
Pass 12-15% 43%
最新
最新
2026-04-21
Pass 15%+
43%
Pass 12-15%
43%
Pass 9-12%
41%
Pass 6-9%
45%
Pass 3-6%
43%
Pass <3%
42%
No Pass
40%
Pass 6-9% 45%
Pass 15%+ 43%
Pass 3-6% 43%
Pass 12-15% 43%
最新
最新
2026-04-21
Pass 15%+
$10 交易量
43%
Pass 12-15%
$0 交易量
43%
Pass 9-12%
$0 交易量
41%
Pass 6-9%
$5 交易量
45%
Pass 3-6%
$0 交易量
43%
Pass <3%
$0 交易量
42%
No Pass
$0 交易量
40%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters backing passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum versus 47% opposed, reflecting slim support for the constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts in response to other states' mid-decade changes. However, Republicans report higher voting certainty (85% definite or already voted) than Democrats (77%), with early voting turnout surging in GOP-leaning areas, fueling trader caution. Conflicting polls, including Neighborhood Research & Media's April survey tying at 45% Yes to 46% No among definite voters, highlight volatility ahead of the April 21 special election. Stark partisan splits—Democrats favor unlocking a map shifting seats their way, Republicans view it as overriding the independent commission—keep probabilities clustered tightly around narrow margins, where final turnout and Election Day surges could create separation.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
市場開放時間： Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
交易量
$15結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters backing passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum versus 47% opposed, reflecting slim support for the constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts in response to other states' mid-decade changes. However, Republicans report higher voting certainty (85% definite or already voted) than Democrats (77%), with early voting turnout surging in GOP-leaning areas, fueling trader caution. Conflicting polls, including Neighborhood Research & Media's April survey tying at 45% Yes to 46% No among definite voters, highlight volatility ahead of the April 21 special election. Stark partisan splits—Democrats favor unlocking a map shifting seats their way, Republicans view it as overriding the independent commission—keep probabilities clustered tightly around narrow margins, where final turnout and Election Day surges could create separation.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
交易量
$15結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll (March 26-31) shows 52% of likely voters backing passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum versus 47% opposed, reflecting slim support for the constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts in response to other states' mid-decade changes. However, Republicans report higher voting certainty (85% definite or already voted) than Democrats (77%), with early voting turnout surging in GOP-leaning areas, fueling trader caution. Conflicting polls, including Neighborhood Research & Media's April survey tying at 45% Yes to 46% No among definite voters, highlight volatility ahead of the April 21 special election. Stark partisan splits—Democrats favor unlocking a map shifting seats their way, Republicans view it as overriding the independent commission—keep probabilities clustered tightly around narrow margins, where final turnout and Election Day surges could create separation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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