**Ruling AKP internal drafting efforts on a civilian constitution have advanced to a near-final stage within the party as of late September 2026, yet these steps have not produced the parliamentary consensus or formal legislative process needed for adoption this year.** The ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold for a referendum or 400 for direct passage, while major opposition parties remain reluctant to engage absent guarantees on judicial independence and rights protections. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism earlier in 2026 for progress by 2027, but attention has increasingly turned to procedural routes for 2028 elections under Article 116 rather than a full constitutional overhaul. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party agreement or scheduled vote, traders assign a 93.5% probability that Turkey will not move forward on a new constitution before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
7% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
7% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ruling AKP internal drafting efforts on a civilian constitution have advanced to a near-final stage within the party as of late September 2026, yet these steps have not produced the parliamentary consensus or formal legislative process needed for adoption this year.** The ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold for a referendum or 400 for direct passage, while major opposition parties remain reluctant to engage absent guarantees on judicial independence and rights protections. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism earlier in 2026 for progress by 2027, but attention has increasingly turned to procedural routes for 2028 elections under Article 116 rather than a full constitutional overhaul. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party agreement or scheduled vote, traders assign a 93.5% probability that Turkey will not move forward on a new constitution before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ruling AKP internal drafting efforts on a civilian constitution have advanced to a near-final stage within the party as of late September 2026, yet these steps have not produced the parliamentary consensus or formal legislative process needed for adoption this year.** The ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold for a referendum or 400 for direct passage, while major opposition parties remain reluctant to engage absent guarantees on judicial independence and rights protections. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism earlier in 2026 for progress by 2027, but attention has increasingly turned to procedural routes for 2028 elections under Article 116 rather than a full constitutional overhaul. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party agreement or scheduled vote, traders assign a 93.5% probability that Turkey will not move forward on a new constitution before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET**Ruling AKP internal drafting efforts on a civilian constitution have advanced to a near-final stage within the party as of late September 2026, yet these steps have not produced the parliamentary consensus or formal legislative process needed for adoption this year.** The ruling alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold for a referendum or 400 for direct passage, while major opposition parties remain reluctant to engage absent guarantees on judicial independence and rights protections. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism earlier in 2026 for progress by 2027, but attention has increasingly turned to procedural routes for 2028 elections under Article 116 rather than a full constitutional overhaul. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party agreement or scheduled vote, traders assign a 93.5% probability that Turkey will not move forward on a new constitution before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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