Turkey’s governing AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-seat supermajority required to advance a constitutional referendum or bypass it through parliamentary vote. Main opposition CHP lawmakers have refused engagement with AKP drafting efforts that began in 2025, eliminating prospects for the cross-party consensus needed to call a nationwide vote by year-end. While President Erdoğan has appointed experts and sustained consultations on replacing the 1982 charter, no procedural breakthrough or alternative signature-based pathway has materialized in 2026. Traders therefore price an announcement as unlikely, reflecting these legislative constraints and the absence of recent developments that would alter the seat arithmetic or opposition stance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於24% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
24% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s governing AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-seat supermajority required to advance a constitutional referendum or bypass it through parliamentary vote. Main opposition CHP lawmakers have refused engagement with AKP drafting efforts that began in 2025, eliminating prospects for the cross-party consensus needed to call a nationwide vote by year-end. While President Erdoğan has appointed experts and sustained consultations on replacing the 1982 charter, no procedural breakthrough or alternative signature-based pathway has materialized in 2026. Traders therefore price an announcement as unlikely, reflecting these legislative constraints and the absence of recent developments that would alter the seat arithmetic or opposition stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,527結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s governing AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-seat supermajority required to advance a constitutional referendum or bypass it through parliamentary vote. Main opposition CHP lawmakers have refused engagement with AKP drafting efforts that began in 2025, eliminating prospects for the cross-party consensus needed to call a nationwide vote by year-end. While President Erdoğan has appointed experts and sustained consultations on replacing the 1982 charter, no procedural breakthrough or alternative signature-based pathway has materialized in 2026. Traders therefore price an announcement as unlikely, reflecting these legislative constraints and the absence of recent developments that would alter the seat arithmetic or opposition stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,527結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s governing AKP-led coalition holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360-seat supermajority required to advance a constitutional referendum or bypass it through parliamentary vote. Main opposition CHP lawmakers have refused engagement with AKP drafting efforts that began in 2025, eliminating prospects for the cross-party consensus needed to call a nationwide vote by year-end. While President Erdoğan has appointed experts and sustained consultations on replacing the 1982 charter, no procedural breakthrough or alternative signature-based pathway has materialized in 2026. Traders therefore price an announcement as unlikely, reflecting these legislative constraints and the absence of recent developments that would alter the seat arithmetic or opposition stance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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