Turkey’s ruling AKP has formed expert commissions and held internal discussions on constitutional reform since 2025, with party figures and the parliament speaker signaling possible advances in 2026-2027. However, the party holds only about 321 seats in the 600-member parliament and lacks the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a referendum. No draft legislation has been introduced, no cross-party agreement exists, and opposition parties including the CHP continue to prioritize early elections over constitutional talks. These structural and procedural barriers, combined with the absence of any formal announcement by August 2026, underpin traders’ 74% consensus that a referendum will not be called before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP has formed expert commissions and held internal discussions on constitutional reform since 2025, with party figures and the parliament speaker signaling possible advances in 2026-2027. However, the party holds only about 321 seats in the 600-member parliament and lacks the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a referendum. No draft legislation has been introduced, no cross-party agreement exists, and opposition parties including the CHP continue to prioritize early elections over constitutional talks. These structural and procedural barriers, combined with the absence of any formal announcement by August 2026, underpin traders’ 74% consensus that a referendum will not be called before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP has formed expert commissions and held internal discussions on constitutional reform since 2025, with party figures and the parliament speaker signaling possible advances in 2026-2027. However, the party holds only about 321 seats in the 600-member parliament and lacks the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a referendum. No draft legislation has been introduced, no cross-party agreement exists, and opposition parties including the CHP continue to prioritize early elections over constitutional talks. These structural and procedural barriers, combined with the absence of any formal announcement by August 2026, underpin traders’ 74% consensus that a referendum will not be called before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP has formed expert commissions and held internal discussions on constitutional reform since 2025, with party figures and the parliament speaker signaling possible advances in 2026-2027. However, the party holds only about 321 seats in the 600-member parliament and lacks the 360-vote threshold required to initiate a referendum. No draft legislation has been introduced, no cross-party agreement exists, and opposition parties including the CHP continue to prioritize early elections over constitutional talks. These structural and procedural barriers, combined with the absence of any formal announcement by August 2026, underpin traders’ 74% consensus that a referendum will not be called before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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