President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a commission to draft a new constitution produced no parliamentary bill or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the process stalled. The AKP-MHP alliance holds only 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum. Opposition parties have withheld support, and any path involving Kurdish lawmakers remains tied to unresolved negotiations. Analysts note that term-limit adjustments could instead occur via early elections rather than a full constitutional overhaul. These structural barriers and absence of recent legislative momentum underpin the market’s 73.5% implied probability that no referendum will be announced before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a commission to draft a new constitution produced no parliamentary bill or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the process stalled. The AKP-MHP alliance holds only 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum. Opposition parties have withheld support, and any path involving Kurdish lawmakers remains tied to unresolved negotiations. Analysts note that term-limit adjustments could instead occur via early elections rather than a full constitutional overhaul. These structural barriers and absence of recent legislative momentum underpin the market’s 73.5% implied probability that no referendum will be announced before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a commission to draft a new constitution produced no parliamentary bill or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the process stalled. The AKP-MHP alliance holds only 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum. Opposition parties have withheld support, and any path involving Kurdish lawmakers remains tied to unresolved negotiations. Analysts note that term-limit adjustments could instead occur via early elections rather than a full constitutional overhaul. These structural barriers and absence of recent legislative momentum underpin the market’s 73.5% implied probability that no referendum will be announced before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a commission to draft a new constitution produced no parliamentary bill or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the process stalled. The AKP-MHP alliance holds only 321 of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum. Opposition parties have withheld support, and any path involving Kurdish lawmakers remains tied to unresolved negotiations. Analysts note that term-limit adjustments could instead occur via early elections rather than a full constitutional overhaul. These structural barriers and absence of recent legislative momentum underpin the market’s 73.5% implied probability that no referendum will be announced before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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