President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly described a new Turkish constitution as a national priority, but his AKP-MHP coalition holds only 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 votes needed to call a referendum. Recent statements from the president frame the effort as non-personal, yet surveys show majority public preference for restoring a parliamentary system, and opposition parties reject changes that could extend term limits ahead of 2028 elections. No formal announcement or legislative push has materialized in 2026, with attention instead on diplomatic initiatives such as PKK talks. These structural and political constraints explain traders’ 73% probability that no referendum will be officially called before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly described a new Turkish constitution as a national priority, but his AKP-MHP coalition holds only 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 votes needed to call a referendum. Recent statements from the president frame the effort as non-personal, yet surveys show majority public preference for restoring a parliamentary system, and opposition parties reject changes that could extend term limits ahead of 2028 elections. No formal announcement or legislative push has materialized in 2026, with attention instead on diplomatic initiatives such as PKK talks. These structural and political constraints explain traders’ 73% probability that no referendum will be officially called before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$6,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly described a new Turkish constitution as a national priority, but his AKP-MHP coalition holds only 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 votes needed to call a referendum. Recent statements from the president frame the effort as non-personal, yet surveys show majority public preference for restoring a parliamentary system, and opposition parties reject changes that could extend term limits ahead of 2028 elections. No formal announcement or legislative push has materialized in 2026, with attention instead on diplomatic initiatives such as PKK talks. These structural and political constraints explain traders’ 73% probability that no referendum will be officially called before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,524結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly described a new Turkish constitution as a national priority, but his AKP-MHP coalition holds only 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360 votes needed to call a referendum. Recent statements from the president frame the effort as non-personal, yet surveys show majority public preference for restoring a parliamentary system, and opposition parties reject changes that could extend term limits ahead of 2028 elections. No formal announcement or legislative push has materialized in 2026, with attention instead on diplomatic initiatives such as PKK talks. These structural and political constraints explain traders’ 73% probability that no referendum will be officially called before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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