**Michigan voters will decide on November 3, 2026, whether to call a constitutional convention via an automatic ballot referral required every 16 years under the 1963 state constitution.** This Proposal 1 question would authorize delegates to consider a full rewrite of the governing document. Traders assign a 94% probability to rejection, consistent with the three prior instances when the question appeared and voters declined to convene. Organized opposition has mobilized ahead of the vote, including the Michigan Education Association’s formal stance against a convention due to risks of changes to education funding, school policy, and collective bargaining. Other groups, such as Voters Not Politicians, have publicly argued that the existing framework does not require wholesale revision at this time. No major polling or signature-driven initiative has emerged to shift momentum toward approval, and the automatic process lacks the targeted advocacy typically needed to overcome historical precedent in a midterm environment.