Recent polls, including a Quantus Insights survey released April 16 showing 51% yes versus 47% no support for Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment—with the lead narrowing after partisan map details—have concentrated trader consensus on narrow pass margins like 3-6%, reflecting a closely contested special election on April 21. Surging early voting, especially in Northern Virginia, alongside massive PAC spending from both sides and Republican rural mobilization, underscores high turnout uncertainty in this low-propensity contest. The Democratic-led General Assembly's push for temporary congressional map changes ahead of 2026 midterms faces motivated opposition framing it as gerrymandering, keeping probabilities dispersed; separation could emerge from final weekend turnout patterns or late ad impacts in battleground areas.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pass 3-6% 31%
Pass 6-9% 22%
No Pass 16.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$11,817 交易量
$11,817 交易量
2026-04-21
Pass 15%+
3%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
9%
Pass 6-9%
22%
Pass 3-6%
31%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
17%
Pass 3-6% 31%
Pass 6-9% 22%
No Pass 16.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$11,817 交易量
$11,817 交易量
2026-04-21
Pass 15%+
$1,234 交易量
3%
Pass 12-15%
$477 交易量
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,313 交易量
9%
Pass 6-9%
$424 交易量
22%
Pass 3-6%
$1,268 交易量
31%
Pass <3%
$464 交易量
17%
No Pass
$6,637 交易量
17%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Quantus Insights survey released April 16 showing 51% yes versus 47% no support for Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment—with the lead narrowing after partisan map details—have concentrated trader consensus on narrow pass margins like 3-6%, reflecting a closely contested special election on April 21. Surging early voting, especially in Northern Virginia, alongside massive PAC spending from both sides and Republican rural mobilization, underscores high turnout uncertainty in this low-propensity contest. The Democratic-led General Assembly's push for temporary congressional map changes ahead of 2026 midterms faces motivated opposition framing it as gerrymandering, keeping probabilities dispersed; separation could emerge from final weekend turnout patterns or late ad impacts in battleground areas.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
市場開放時間： Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
交易量
$11,817結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Quantus Insights survey released April 16 showing 51% yes versus 47% no support for Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment—with the lead narrowing after partisan map details—have concentrated trader consensus on narrow pass margins like 3-6%, reflecting a closely contested special election on April 21. Surging early voting, especially in Northern Virginia, alongside massive PAC spending from both sides and Republican rural mobilization, underscores high turnout uncertainty in this low-propensity contest. The Democratic-led General Assembly's push for temporary congressional map changes ahead of 2026 midterms faces motivated opposition framing it as gerrymandering, keeping probabilities dispersed; separation could emerge from final weekend turnout patterns or late ad impacts in battleground areas.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
交易量
$11,817結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Quantus Insights survey released April 16 showing 51% yes versus 47% no support for Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment—with the lead narrowing after partisan map details—have concentrated trader consensus on narrow pass margins like 3-6%, reflecting a closely contested special election on April 21. Surging early voting, especially in Northern Virginia, alongside massive PAC spending from both sides and Republican rural mobilization, underscores high turnout uncertainty in this low-propensity contest. The Democratic-led General Assembly's push for temporary congressional map changes ahead of 2026 midterms faces motivated opposition framing it as gerrymandering, keeping probabilities dispersed; separation could emerge from final weekend turnout patterns or late ad impacts in battleground areas.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions