Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings” commands the highest implied probability in the #2 US Spotify Song 2026 market due to its dominant mid-year streaming surge, including multiple days at #1 on the US daily chart and strong cumulative volume that positions it as a likely runner-up behind frontrunners like Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas.” The track’s resurgence, fueled by short-form video virality and playlist momentum more than two years after release, created a substantial lead in year-to-date plays despite a brief adjustment for suspicious streams flagged by Spotify. Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need” sits in a distant second tier thanks to its steady Hot 100 trajectory and international success, yet it trails significantly in current US daily streams. With the year-end tally still months away, late surges from newer releases or sustained runs by established hits could shift the ranking, though trader consensus currently favors “Earrings” for its established position.