Spain, Italy, France, and most recently Austria have restricted U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with Austria's defense minister confirming denials dating to the war's outset as of early April. No additional EU nations have announced similar measures in the past week, despite calls from groups like Ireland's Shannonwatch for neutrality-driven action. Trader consensus at 81.5% "No" reflects stalled momentum, as pro-U.S. NATO allies like Poland and the Baltics prioritize alliance commitments and transatlantic diplomacy over further airspace closures before the April 30 deadline, barring major escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-04-30
最新
最新
2026-04-30
Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Spain, Italy, France, and most recently Austria have restricted U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with Austria's defense minister confirming denials dating to the war's outset as of early April. No additional EU nations have announced similar measures in the past week, despite calls from groups like Ireland's Shannonwatch for neutrality-driven action. Trader consensus at 81.5% "No" reflects stalled momentum, as pro-U.S. NATO allies like Poland and the Baltics prioritize alliance commitments and transatlantic diplomacy over further airspace closures before the April 30 deadline, barring major escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
交易量
$8,989结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Spain, Italy, France, and most recently Austria have restricted U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with Austria's defense minister confirming denials dating to the war's outset as of early April. No additional EU nations have announced similar measures in the past week, despite calls from groups like Ireland's Shannonwatch for neutrality-driven action. Trader consensus at 81.5% "No" reflects stalled momentum, as pro-U.S. NATO allies like Poland and the Baltics prioritize alliance commitments and transatlantic diplomacy over further airspace closures before the April 30 deadline, barring major escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,989结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Spain, Italy, France, and most recently Austria have restricted U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with Austria's defense minister confirming denials dating to the war's outset as of early April. No additional EU nations have announced similar measures in the past week, despite calls from groups like Ireland's Shannonwatch for neutrality-driven action. Trader consensus at 81.5% "No" reflects stalled momentum, as pro-U.S. NATO allies like Poland and the Baltics prioritize alliance commitments and transatlantic diplomacy over further airspace closures before the April 30 deadline, barring major escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题