Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$158,966 交易量
$158,966 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$158,966 交易量
$158,966 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
交易量
$158,966结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$158,966结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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