Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月9日 100.0%
June 24 or earlier <1%
June 25 <1%
June 26 <1%
$1,013,818 交易量
$1,013,818 交易量
2026-07-31
June 24 or earlier
No
June 25
No
June 26
No
June 27
No
June 28
No
June 29
No
June 30
No
July 1
No
7月2日
否
7月3日
否
7月4日
否
7月5日
否
7月6日
否
7月7日
否
7月8日
否
7月9日
是
7月10日
否
7 月 11 日
否
7月12日
否
7月13日
否
7月14日
否
7月15日
否
7月16日
否
7月17日
否
7月18日
否
7月19日
否
7月20日
否
7月21日
否
7 月 22 日
否
7月23日
否
July 24
No
July 25
No
July 26
No
7月27日
否
7月28日
否
7月29日
否
July 30
No
July 31
No
Not released before August
No
7月9日 100.0%
June 24 or earlier <1%
June 25 <1%
June 26 <1%
$1,013,818 交易量
$1,013,818 交易量
2026-07-31
June 24 or earlier
$548 交易量
No
June 25
$10,569 交易量
No
June 26
$3,066 交易量
No
June 27
$1,410 交易量
No
June 28
$4,390 交易量
No
June 29
$2,960 交易量
No
June 30
$5,022 交易量
No
July 1
$8,897 交易量
No
7月2日
$9,747 交易量
否
7月3日
$2,222 交易量
否
7月4日
$5,827 交易量
否
7月5日
$18,102 交易量
否
7月6日
$39,510 交易量
否
7月7日
$305,392 交易量
否
7月8日
$118,843 交易量
否
7月9日
$278,673 交易量
是
7月10日
$51,247 交易量
否
7 月 11 日
$10,822 交易量
否
7月12日
$6,213 交易量
否
7月13日
$5,996 交易量
否
7月14日
$23,914 交易量
否
7月15日
$10,060 交易量
否
7月16日
$23,506 交易量
否
7月17日
$7,624 交易量
否
7月18日
$1,991 交易量
否
7月19日
$1,733 交易量
否
7月20日
$2,397 交易量
否
7月21日
$5,011 交易量
否
7 月 22 日
$2,268 交易量
否
7月23日
$4,790 交易量
否
July 24
$3,521 交易量
No
July 25
$1,757 交易量
No
July 26
$741 交易量
No
7月27日
$1,771 交易量
否
7月28日
$4,676 交易量
否
7月29日
$2,266 交易量
否
July 30
$4,350 交易量
No
July 31
$2,759 交易量
No
Not released before August
$19,226 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ET
交易量
$1,013,818结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,013,818结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 1:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on GPT-5.6 timing shows high uncertainty, with late-June and July dates sharing identical 44% implied probabilities that reflect the absence of confirmed OpenAI announcements or leaked internal milestones. Competitive pressure from rival large language models at Anthropic and Google, combined with OpenAI's variable release cadence since GPT-4o, keeps the outcome fluid. Key swing factors include any official statements, developer conference reveals, or regulatory scrutiny that could accelerate or delay deployment. Traders weigh typical product timelines against the risk of last-minute capability adjustments or safety reviews before the model reaches broad availability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题