Moonshot AI's July 16 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts large language model, has anchored trader sentiment around continued Chinese progress in frontier AI. The model delivers competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's latest GPT variants on coding and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1-million-token context window and native vision capabilities, though it still trails on some overall performance metrics. Surging demand quickly forced Moonshot to pause new signups, underscoring real-world interest and compute constraints. Full open-weight availability is scheduled for July 27, providing a near-term catalyst that could influence perceptions of accessibility versus closed U.S. systems. Broader dynamics include China's narrowing capability gap despite export controls and Moonshot's valuation near $20 billion, with traders watching for follow-on releases from either Moonshot or U.S. labs that might shift the implied probability of the next K-series milestone.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
50%
2026年12月31日
67%
$435 交易量
2026年9月30日
$442 交易量
50%
2026年12月31日
$212 交易量
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's July 16 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts large language model, has anchored trader sentiment around continued Chinese progress in frontier AI. The model delivers competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's latest GPT variants on coding and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1-million-token context window and native vision capabilities, though it still trails on some overall performance metrics. Surging demand quickly forced Moonshot to pause new signups, underscoring real-world interest and compute constraints. Full open-weight availability is scheduled for July 27, providing a near-term catalyst that could influence perceptions of accessibility versus closed U.S. systems. Broader dynamics include China's narrowing capability gap despite export controls and Moonshot's valuation near $20 billion, with traders watching for follow-on releases from either Moonshot or U.S. labs that might shift the implied probability of the next K-series milestone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$435结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's July 16 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts large language model, has anchored trader sentiment around continued Chinese progress in frontier AI. The model delivers competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's latest GPT variants on coding and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1-million-token context window and native vision capabilities, though it still trails on some overall performance metrics. Surging demand quickly forced Moonshot to pause new signups, underscoring real-world interest and compute constraints. Full open-weight availability is scheduled for July 27, providing a near-term catalyst that could influence perceptions of accessibility versus closed U.S. systems. Broader dynamics include China's narrowing capability gap despite export controls and Moonshot's valuation near $20 billion, with traders watching for follow-on releases from either Moonshot or U.S. labs that might shift the implied probability of the next K-series milestone.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$435结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's July 16 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight mixture-of-experts large language model, has anchored trader sentiment around continued Chinese progress in frontier AI. The model delivers competitive results against Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's latest GPT variants on coding and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1-million-token context window and native vision capabilities, though it still trails on some overall performance metrics. Surging demand quickly forced Moonshot to pause new signups, underscoring real-world interest and compute constraints. Full open-weight availability is scheduled for July 27, providing a near-term catalyst that could influence perceptions of accessibility versus closed U.S. systems. Broader dynamics include China's narrowing capability gap despite export controls and Moonshot's valuation near $20 billion, with traders watching for follow-on releases from either Moonshot or U.S. labs that might shift the implied probability of the next K-series milestone.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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