Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, followed by open-weight release on July 27, has set a high bar for its successor, with traders assigning only modest implied probability of a public Kimi K4 release by year-end. The company continues sourcing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to train a larger model, amid U.S. export-control scrutiny and allegations of model distillation via proxy servers. Recent activity has focused on iterative updates such as the September 11 K2.8 Preview for coding agents rather than a full K4 announcement, reflecting typical scaling timelines for frontier mixture-of-experts architectures with million-token context and native multimodal capabilities. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, combined with enterprise partner initiatives launched in early September, keeps attention on whether Moonshot can sustain its rapid cadence or faces compute and regulatory headwinds that extend development.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,814 交易量
2026-10-31
2026年10月31日
3%
2026年12月31日
5%
$17,814 交易量
2026年10月31日
$9,489 交易量
3%
2026年12月31日
$8,325 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, followed by open-weight release on July 27, has set a high bar for its successor, with traders assigning only modest implied probability of a public Kimi K4 release by year-end. The company continues sourcing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to train a larger model, amid U.S. export-control scrutiny and allegations of model distillation via proxy servers. Recent activity has focused on iterative updates such as the September 11 K2.8 Preview for coding agents rather than a full K4 announcement, reflecting typical scaling timelines for frontier mixture-of-experts architectures with million-token context and native multimodal capabilities. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, combined with enterprise partner initiatives launched in early September, keeps attention on whether Moonshot can sustain its rapid cadence or faces compute and regulatory headwinds that extend development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$17,814结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, followed by open-weight release on July 27, has set a high bar for its successor, with traders assigning only modest implied probability of a public Kimi K4 release by year-end. The company continues sourcing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to train a larger model, amid U.S. export-control scrutiny and allegations of model distillation via proxy servers. Recent activity has focused on iterative updates such as the September 11 K2.8 Preview for coding agents rather than a full K4 announcement, reflecting typical scaling timelines for frontier mixture-of-experts architectures with million-token context and native multimodal capabilities. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, combined with enterprise partner initiatives launched in early September, keeps attention on whether Moonshot can sustain its rapid cadence or faces compute and regulatory headwinds that extend development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,814结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETMoonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, followed by open-weight release on July 27, has set a high bar for its successor, with traders assigning only modest implied probability of a public Kimi K4 release by year-end. The company continues sourcing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to train a larger model, amid U.S. export-control scrutiny and allegations of model distillation via proxy servers. Recent activity has focused on iterative updates such as the September 11 K2.8 Preview for coding agents rather than a full K4 announcement, reflecting typical scaling timelines for frontier mixture-of-experts architectures with million-token context and native multimodal capabilities. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, combined with enterprise partner initiatives launched in early September, keeps attention on whether Moonshot can sustain its rapid cadence or faces compute and regulatory headwinds that extend development.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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