xAI's Grok 5, the planned successor large language model with rumored 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants, remains in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026 after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 targets. Repeated timeline slips, combined with xAI's focus on shipping interim flagships like Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August plus a targeted Grok 4.7 launch around September 12, have shaped trader consensus toward a late-2026 release. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with low probabilities through October and roughly even chances by year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus Musk's stated monthly cadence and emphasis on coding capabilities via SpaceX and Cursor data, could accelerate progress, though post-training evaluation and deployment risks persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,301 交易量
2026-10-31
10 月 31 日
10%
11 月 30 日
24%
12 月 31 日
55%
$12,301 交易量
10 月 31 日
$2,412 交易量
10%
11 月 30 日
$763 交易量
24%
12 月 31 日
$4,049 交易量
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5, the planned successor large language model with rumored 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants, remains in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026 after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 targets. Repeated timeline slips, combined with xAI's focus on shipping interim flagships like Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August plus a targeted Grok 4.7 launch around September 12, have shaped trader consensus toward a late-2026 release. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with low probabilities through October and roughly even chances by year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus Musk's stated monthly cadence and emphasis on coding capabilities via SpaceX and Cursor data, could accelerate progress, though post-training evaluation and deployment risks persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$12,301结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5, the planned successor large language model with rumored 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants, remains in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026 after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 targets. Repeated timeline slips, combined with xAI's focus on shipping interim flagships like Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August plus a targeted Grok 4.7 launch around September 12, have shaped trader consensus toward a late-2026 release. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with low probabilities through October and roughly even chances by year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus Musk's stated monthly cadence and emphasis on coding capabilities via SpaceX and Cursor data, could accelerate progress, though post-training evaluation and deployment risks persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$12,301结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETxAI's Grok 5, the planned successor large language model with rumored 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants, remains in training on the Colossus 2 supercluster as of September 2026 after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 targets. Repeated timeline slips, combined with xAI's focus on shipping interim flagships like Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August plus a targeted Grok 4.7 launch around September 12, have shaped trader consensus toward a late-2026 release. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with low probabilities through October and roughly even chances by year-end. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, plus Musk's stated monthly cadence and emphasis on coding capabilities via SpaceX and Cursor data, could accelerate progress, though post-training evaluation and deployment risks persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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