Recent trader sentiment on the best AI model for August 1 centers on the claude-opus-4-6-thinking variant, which commands the highest implied probability amid Anthropic’s rapid 2026 release cadence. Its edge stems from strong established results on agentic coding benchmarks and long-horizon workflows, bolstered by the February 2026 launch features such as adaptive thinking and parallel agent teams. Newer Claude Fable 5, released June 9 as a Mythos-class model topping SWE-bench Verified at 95 percent after its July 1 API return following a brief export suspension, trails in market pricing despite superior raw capability scores, likely reflecting uncertainty over resolution criteria, fallback safeguards to Opus 4.8 on restricted topics, and the short window to August 1. Upcoming earnings or benchmark updates could still shift positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于其他 91.7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 3.6%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$100,620 交易量
$100,620 交易量
2026-08-01
其他
92%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
4%
claude-fable-5
1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
其他 91.7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 3.6%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$100,620 交易量
$100,620 交易量
2026-08-01
其他
$25,716 交易量
92%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$55,963 交易量
4%
claude-fable-5
$13,577 交易量
1%
claude-opus-4-6
$5,364 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent trader sentiment on the best AI model for August 1 centers on the claude-opus-4-6-thinking variant, which commands the highest implied probability amid Anthropic’s rapid 2026 release cadence. Its edge stems from strong established results on agentic coding benchmarks and long-horizon workflows, bolstered by the February 2026 launch features such as adaptive thinking and parallel agent teams. Newer Claude Fable 5, released June 9 as a Mythos-class model topping SWE-bench Verified at 95 percent after its July 1 API return following a brief export suspension, trails in market pricing despite superior raw capability scores, likely reflecting uncertainty over resolution criteria, fallback safeguards to Opus 4.8 on restricted topics, and the short window to August 1. Upcoming earnings or benchmark updates could still shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ET
交易量
$100,620结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent trader sentiment on the best AI model for August 1 centers on the claude-opus-4-6-thinking variant, which commands the highest implied probability amid Anthropic’s rapid 2026 release cadence. Its edge stems from strong established results on agentic coding benchmarks and long-horizon workflows, bolstered by the February 2026 launch features such as adaptive thinking and parallel agent teams. Newer Claude Fable 5, released June 9 as a Mythos-class model topping SWE-bench Verified at 95 percent after its July 1 API return following a brief export suspension, trails in market pricing despite superior raw capability scores, likely reflecting uncertainty over resolution criteria, fallback safeguards to Opus 4.8 on restricted topics, and the short window to August 1. Upcoming earnings or benchmark updates could still shift positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$100,620结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 11:03 PM ETRecent trader sentiment on the best AI model for August 1 centers on the claude-opus-4-6-thinking variant, which commands the highest implied probability amid Anthropic’s rapid 2026 release cadence. Its edge stems from strong established results on agentic coding benchmarks and long-horizon workflows, bolstered by the February 2026 launch features such as adaptive thinking and parallel agent teams. Newer Claude Fable 5, released June 9 as a Mythos-class model topping SWE-bench Verified at 95 percent after its July 1 API return following a brief export suspension, trails in market pricing despite superior raw capability scores, likely reflecting uncertainty over resolution criteria, fallback safeguards to Opus 4.8 on restricted topics, and the short window to August 1. Upcoming earnings or benchmark updates could still shift positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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