Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD at 17-19 percent, placing it in a tight multi-party contest behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the Greens and SPD. This positioning explains why traders assign the highest probability to the 17-20 percent band. National momentum for the AfD, combined with strength in eastern districts of the capital, lifted the party into first place in some July surveys, yet more recent INSA and other samples indicate stabilization rather than further gains. Upcoming eastern state votes in early September could provide additional signals on turnout or momentum before Berlin ballots close. The narrow spread between the 14-17 and 20-plus percent brackets reflects uncertainty over final-week shifts among undecided voters and minor parties near the five-percent threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于17-20% 50%
14-17% 32%
20%+ 16%
低于14% 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
低于14%
6%
14-17%
32%
17-20%
50%
20%+
16%
17-20% 50%
14-17% 32%
20%+ 16%
低于14% 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
低于14%
$41 交易量
6%
14-17%
$0 交易量
32%
17-20%
$0 交易量
50%
20%+
$28 交易量
16%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD at 17-19 percent, placing it in a tight multi-party contest behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the Greens and SPD. This positioning explains why traders assign the highest probability to the 17-20 percent band. National momentum for the AfD, combined with strength in eastern districts of the capital, lifted the party into first place in some July surveys, yet more recent INSA and other samples indicate stabilization rather than further gains. Upcoming eastern state votes in early September could provide additional signals on turnout or momentum before Berlin ballots close. The narrow spread between the 14-17 and 20-plus percent brackets reflects uncertainty over final-week shifts among undecided voters and minor parties near the five-percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$69结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD at 17-19 percent, placing it in a tight multi-party contest behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the Greens and SPD. This positioning explains why traders assign the highest probability to the 17-20 percent band. National momentum for the AfD, combined with strength in eastern districts of the capital, lifted the party into first place in some July surveys, yet more recent INSA and other samples indicate stabilization rather than further gains. Upcoming eastern state votes in early September could provide additional signals on turnout or momentum before Berlin ballots close. The narrow spread between the 14-17 and 20-plus percent brackets reflects uncertainty over final-week shifts among undecided voters and minor parties near the five-percent threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$69结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD at 17-19 percent, placing it in a tight multi-party contest behind or level with the CDU and Left Party while ahead of the Greens and SPD. This positioning explains why traders assign the highest probability to the 17-20 percent band. National momentum for the AfD, combined with strength in eastern districts of the capital, lifted the party into first place in some July surveys, yet more recent INSA and other samples indicate stabilization rather than further gains. Upcoming eastern state votes in early September could provide additional signals on turnout or momentum before Berlin ballots close. The narrow spread between the 14-17 and 20-plus percent brackets reflects uncertainty over final-week shifts among undecided voters and minor parties near the five-percent threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题