Recent Berlin state election polls place the Grüne consistently at or just below 17 percent, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys from July–August 2026 showing 16–17 percent support amid a fragmented field led by Die Linke and the CDU. This positioning reflects limited recent momentum for the Greens despite their 2023 result near 18 percent, as voter attention shifts toward other parties on housing, transport, and state governance. With the September 20 vote one month away and no major late developments boosting Green standing, trader consensus on the Under side aligns with these polling trends and the party's current trajectory in the Abgeordnetenhaus race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于超过
40% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
超过
40% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent Berlin state election polls place the Grüne consistently at or just below 17 percent, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys from July–August 2026 showing 16–17 percent support amid a fragmented field led by Die Linke and the CDU. This positioning reflects limited recent momentum for the Greens despite their 2023 result near 18 percent, as voter attention shifts toward other parties on housing, transport, and state governance. With the September 20 vote one month away and no major late developments boosting Green standing, trader consensus on the Under side aligns with these polling trends and the party's current trajectory in the Abgeordnetenhaus race.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
交易量
$52结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent Berlin state election polls place the Grüne consistently at or just below 17 percent, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys from July–August 2026 showing 16–17 percent support amid a fragmented field led by Die Linke and the CDU. This positioning reflects limited recent momentum for the Greens despite their 2023 result near 18 percent, as voter attention shifts toward other parties on housing, transport, and state governance. With the September 20 vote one month away and no major late developments boosting Green standing, trader consensus on the Under side aligns with these polling trends and the party's current trajectory in the Abgeordnetenhaus race.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$52结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Berlin state election polls place the Grüne consistently at or just below 17 percent, with the latest INSA and Civey surveys from July–August 2026 showing 16–17 percent support amid a fragmented field led by Die Linke and the CDU. This positioning reflects limited recent momentum for the Greens despite their 2023 result near 18 percent, as voter attention shifts toward other parties on housing, transport, and state governance. With the September 20 vote one month away and no major late developments boosting Green standing, trader consensus on the Under side aligns with these polling trends and the party's current trajectory in the Abgeordnetenhaus race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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